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This picture taken on September 22, shows the long-range Iranian missile "Khoramshahr" being shown during the annual military parade marking the anniversary of the outbreak of the devastating war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, in the capital Tehran. Newsletter email address Get it By signing up, you agree to the terms. In this picture released by the official website of the Iranian Defense Ministry on Aug. In this photo provided November 5, , by the Iranian Army, a Sayyad 2 missile is fired by the Talash air defense system during drills in an undisclosed location in Iran.
Iranian Army via AP. View comments Hide comments. Stay updated. There were reports that Israel had armed and deployed nuclear-tipped Jericho missiles stationed in underground silos. The second occasion, according to foreign reports, was during the Gulf War, in January , the first night that Saddam Hussein ordered the firing of Scud missiles at Tel Aviv and Haifa. Fearing that Israel would fiercely retaliate and sabotage the U. But based on the foreign reports, the main reason the idea was rejected was that Jericho missiles are meant to serve as strategic weapons similar to the submarines as a nuclear last resort.
Such an assumption makes sense. It is a very expensive missile, and experts believe that Israel has dozens, or even up to , such missiles. Assuming that a Jericho missile can carry a one-ton conventional warhead, it seems useless to "waste" when a warplane can deliver a payload eight times heavier. Thus, assuming that Israel will never use the nuclear weapons that most of the world believes it has such a use would also mean the country's demise , it is clear that the Jericho missiles' sole purpose is deterrence — above all against Iran but also against Pakistan, located around 4, kilometers away, which is the exact range of Jericho.
Not that Israel leaders think in such terms. Pakistan's main enemy is India. But in Israel's eyes, Pakistan is the only country that has an "Islamic bomb.
In the past, Israel was very worried about Pakistan. Libya , under Muammar Gadhafi, gave millions of dollars to help Pakistan build the bomb. Pakistan ignored the request. Yet Dr. The concern about Pakistan remains at the heart of the Israel-India strategic partnership, which includes military intelligence.
Sign up for email alerts below or on top in mobile to receive every new post by Yossi Melman in your inbox. Yossi Melman Dec. They could enhance Iran's leverage in negotiations with strategic partners, like Russia, or adversaries, like Western nations and NATO. Iran could provoke wider opposition and pushback if it boasts about its missile capabilities. The longer range missiles boost Iran's standing among nations with ballistic missiles. If it developed intercontinental missiles, it could become a global power.
Cruise missiles in an underground base along the Gulf. Such "missile cities" are mostly relevant to maritime conflict around the Gulf. Iran faces a tension between the ability to strike quickly and the survival of its missile arsenal. Iran's built its missile cities to signal that it can still inflict immense pain even if an enemy tries to crush it—so back off. The security of these missile cities is unclear. Unlike missiles that are mobile, the missiles stored in underground facilities are more vulnerable to air strikes.
The more a country invests in creating infrastructure, the more time an enemy has to prepare to counter it. The difference between a precise missile and imprecise missile is in the probability of impact. An imprecise weapon system may require more missiles to hit a small target. A precise weapon system usually requires fewer missiles to a target. One hit for every 20 launches is a poor ratio. One hit in every five or 10 launches is better precision or a better ratio.
The missiles in many Western militaries can get within a meter of a target with 90 percent accuracy. Precision technology is important because it converts missiles that mainly have psychological impact into cost-effective and more accurate weapons. Precise missiles can take out power stations, military headquarters, ships and airfields, with rippling impact nationwide. Precision missiles allow Iran to pick the exact time and location of a strike. They allow Iran and their proxies to conduct decapitation strikes against enemy targets, as the Houthi rebels did in striking Yemen's cabinet at the Aden airport in December A Soumar cruise missile, with a range of 2, km to 3, km miles to miles , on display in March Cruise missiles can fly under the radar without detection.
They can attack the same target from several directions. They also offer deniability. Iran can mask launch sites and later claim that a missile was launched from Iraq or from Yemen, as it did with the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September Iran could saturate a target with cruise missiles and seek to disrupt air defense systems. Some cruise missiles can also maneuver so they're harder to shoot down.
They are good tools, although they are not perfect weapons. But Iran is a late arrival to cruise missiles, which involve an older technology. The United States has had Tomahawk cruise missiles since But they are good enough because they are more affordable and still effective.
Iran launched ballistic missiles at jihadi targets in eastern Syria in June It fired missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan in September And it struck Ayn al Asad military base in January Iran can target specific structures, not just broad areas, sometimes with real-time reconnaissance by drones over the target.
The United States, Israel and some Gulf countries have expanded their air defense systems. When the Houthis threatened to attack Israel in , Israel added missile detection and defense systems facing south. The United States, Israel and the Gulf all need better early-warning, detection, interception and protection systems to defend against potential attacks by Iran or its proxies. They also need counter-strike capabilities.
It retaliated on Ayn al Asad and continued harassing the Green Zone in Iraq, but those attacks were more indirect and were less intense than previous attacks on Americans in Iraq. The general approach in Israel has been to build a multi-tiered missile defense system that operates at different ranges and altitudes. Missile defenses are part of a systemic response that also involves intelligence, detection, integration, early warning, communication, and civil defense.
Israel probably has an 80 percent to 90 percent success rate of interception. The Iranian art of indirect warfare will fight to the last Lebanese, the last Syrian, the last Afghani or the last Pakistani militiaman.
The myriad militias in Syria have recruits from all of these nations. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is the flagship of Iranian proxy warfare.
For Iran, hurling half a ton of explosives into Israel from 1, km 1, miles away is expensive. It's more cost-efficient to have proxies use missiles from closer range. In Lebanon, for example, Hezbollah can fire more rockets or short-range missiles and saturate its targets in Israel—and not have to spill its own blood.
Hezbollah will do the job and Lebanon will pay the price. Iran is waging a slow motion, low-burning war in which it is the mastermind, while the proxies are cannon fodder.
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